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Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season
Future Start Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niño. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC) I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC) July 09E.HOWARD And yet another AOI southwest of Mexico Another one that's now at 0/40 on the 5-day TWO. This should be a weak Howard, and the last storm of the outbreak. If it becomes a TS before August 1, it will break 1985's record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:27, July 26, 2016 (UTC) :Wow, another AOI? Amazing. Howard seems likely out of this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:26, July 26, 2016 (UTC) ::Another one?! This is insane. Here comes Howard, I guess... ''St''''eve'' 05:20, July 27, 2016 (UTC) :::0/50. I don't expect Howard to form before August from this, but when it does, it might become a hurricane. Ryan1000 14:53, July 27, 2016 (UTC) ::::20/70, and the NHC notes that the showers and thunderstorms "continue to show signs of organization". ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 16:21, July 28, 2016 (UTC) 91E.INVEST Once more, the EPAC prepares to make another tropical cyclone. 91E, invested per Wunderground, is coming together in the middle of the NHC's AOR, and they note it is likely that we will see a TD by the start of next week. Chances of formation are now 40% for the next two days and 80% for the next five. On a side note, if 91E is named, this will put 2016 further down the list from where 2010 ended around the start of August, which shows how inactive the latter was. AndrewTalk To Me 19:31, July 28, 2016 (UTC) : I remember 2010 being the first year I tracked TCs. I started monitoring the EPac soon after I began Atlantic monitoring, and over the next couple months, always wondered why it was extremely inactive that year. I kept impatiently waiting for Howard, but of course, it didn't come that year. Looks like we're seeing Howard extremely early and it's insane compared to the 2010 season. The EPac needs to chillax. ''St''''eve'' 21:15, July 28, 2016 (UTC) ::I'm glad I wasn't tracking hurricanes in 2010 to be disappointed by that season lol. Anyway, this invest continues to come together, and is now up to 50/80. I expect Howard out of this in around 3 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:37, July 29, 2016 (UTC) :::It appears 91E has stalled in development, as the NHC notes organization has seldom changed today. However, conditions are still favorable for additional intensification, and I believe a tropical depression remains likely. Chances of formation have not changed in the last 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 01:41, July 30, 2016 (UTC) ::::Chances of formation have gone up to 60/90, as the NHC notes that conditions are becoming more favourable. Let's hope Howard comes by the end of the month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:24, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :::::Right now 91E has no organization whatsoever, so it's going to need to get it's act together fast to become Howard by the end of the month. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:15, July 30, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It looks like shower activity is increasing and becoming better organized in this invest. It's 70/90 and it's possible it could be named as soon as tomorrow, narrowly making the window for the record-breaking 8th July named storm. The TWO is now saying "After that time, conditions are expected to be less conducive for development." which could mean this might only peak as a tropical storm once it develops. ''St''''eve'' 01:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC) :::::::91E's convection is deepening and becoming more concentrated, and it has about 13 hours to become a tropical storm before it's officially August by UTC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:15, July 31, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nine-E Now it's numbered, but it only has 4 hours left to become Howard before August starts. If it can become Howard by the next advisory, we have an 8-storm July on our hands. Ryan1000 20:01, July 31, 2016 (UTC) : It's still a TD. We didn't get an 8 storm July...sigh. Should be Howard tomorrow, though. But it's only forecast to peak as a tropical storm. ''St''''eve'' 00:41, August 1, 2016 (UTC) : Hmmm... but it isn't Aug 1 in the West Coast yet (so Howard might still be classified as a TS in about 56 minutes or so, though honestly speaking I don't think it will happen operationally). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:04, August 1, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Howard Failed by six hours, and not expected to get past 45 knots. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:20, August 1, 2016 (UTC) : And NOW Howard begins to improve considerably. Howard is looking a lot better, with a rather symetrical CDO and quite a lot of banding. Howard was upped to 45 knots already with the last advisory and the new forecast peak is 55 knots. I think if Howard keeps this up he could even become a hurricane! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:44, August 1, 2016 (UTC) :: Anon, I went by UTC, which is the universal standard time and what should be used for records like this. Unfortunately, Howard wasn't the 8th named July storm. The storm is predicted to only survive until 2 days from now, so it is just a basic tropical storm. ''St''''eve'' 00:08, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::Well, Howard now has 50 knot winds, but the pressure remains at 999 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:20, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::::Howard is remaining at the same strength, but models are beginning to indicate that Howard will weaken slower or even reintensify in the future per NHC discussion. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:55, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Howard is 60 mph now, and this should be its peak unless it reintensifies in the future. The forecast has it dead by Friday morning and its remnants could possibly affect Hawaii. ''St''''eve'' 23:49, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Howard It unexpectedly died earlier today. ''St''''eve'' 04:43, August 4, 2016 (UTC) August 10E.IVETTE Another AOI in the same place as Invest 91E On the 5-day outlook another area of low pressure is expected to form around the same place as 91E is now, and is rated at 0/20. Apparently the EPac's not getting its fill of steroids, and I've run out of ideas for the headers to describe just how many AOIs have formed in the past month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:29, July 30, 2016 (UTC) :Wow, another AOI, which is now at 0/30. If the EPAC keeps this up, this season will end up well above average despite the latest EPAC first named storm on record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:19, July 30, 2016 (UTC) ::We could see Ivette here, assuming the other invest is Howard. The EPac continues to surprise us with extreme activity since early July. ''St''''eve'' 01:20, July 31, 2016 (UTC) :::Up to 0/60. We should see Ivette from this, eventually. ''St''''eve'' 00:42, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::10/70, and Ivette should arrive by the end of the week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:21, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::Now 30/80. It's almost certain we will be seeing Ivette by Friday. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:47, August 1, 2016 (UTC) ::::::It is currently 40/90. The EPac has shown us this year that it is consuming a lot of caffeine and Gatorade. ''St''''eve'' 00:10, August 2, 2016 (UTC) 92E.INVEST Invested, and chances have gone up to 50/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:19, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Depression Ten-E Upgraded by NHC. Will this be Ivette later on? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:15, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :Intensity wise, future Ivette is likely to intensify over the next few days, but gradually, due to moderate wind shear. The SHIPS guidance suggest some relaxation of the shear after 48 hours, leaving the door open to intensify into a hurricane around that time, possibly a strong one. Guidence is in good agreement over the next 6-7 days on a WNW track south of the subtropical high, and on this course, 10E will be moving over cooling waters by day 5, and thus weakening slowly. YE [[Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season|'P'''acific]] 21:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC) :::Well, this formed sooner than expected. Hopefully future Ivette can become a good looking hurricane before conditions worsen in 5 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC) ::::This will be the first use of the name "Ivette" after we needed a replacement for "Isis" for obvious reasons. I hope for a powerful major so the first use can be an amazing storm. [[User:Steve820 |''St]]''eve'' 23:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC) Tropical Storm Ivette Now named for the first time, forecast to become a hurricane after Howard eventually dies away. Ryan1000 12:25, August 3, 2016 (UTC)